| The election is months away. The Republican challenger is not close to being decided. Whither Barack Obama? Last week we surveyed a sample of 115 global buy-siders (from Asia to Europe to North America) and discovered that investors around the world currently see the power of an incumbent president as perhaps too much to overcome. This conviction is understandably stronger among investors who are not as close to the US electoral process and passions (those based outside the US) – among whom 54% prophesize an Obama victory. The “score” is much closer in the United States where a decided plurality (44% versus 31%) still thinks Obama will win. But from another vantage point, 44% is certainly no majority and if you take the 31% of the US buy-side which doesn’t believe he’ll be reelected along with the 25% who are uncertain a very different picture emerges – one where more than half (56%) do not forecast reelection at this time. We will be giving updates on this over the course of 2012. Should be interesting. |
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